Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, UK: October 2023

1. Main Points

  • Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 6.1% in the 12 months to October 2023, up from 5.7% in the 12 months to September 2023.

  • Annual private rental prices increased by 6.0% in England, 6.9% in Wales, and 6.2% in Scotland in the 12 months to October 2023.

  • Within England, London had the highest annual percentage change in private rental prices in the 12 months to October 2023 at 6.8%, while the North East saw the lowest at 4.7%.

  • London’s annual percentage change in private rental prices was at its highest annual rate since the London data series began in January 2006.

2. UK private rental prices

Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK increased by 6.1% in the 12 months to October 2023 (provisional estimate). This represents the largest annual percentage change since this UK data series began in January 2016, and is up from 5.7% in the 12 months to September 2023.

The annual inflation rate of private rental prices in the UK began to increase in the second half of 2021 (Figure 1). Annual growth was seen across all regions except London, where prices decreased. The annual percentage change in rents increased across all regions in 2022, including in London, and this has generally continued during 2023.

 

In the 12 months to October 2023, rental prices for the UK (excluding London) increased by 5.7% (provisional estimate). This is up from an increase of 5.5% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to September 2023. Private rental prices in London account for almost a third of UK rental expenditure, as shown in our Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, UK: annual weights analysis dataset.

 

Private rental prices in London increased by 6.8% in the 12 months to October 2023, up from an increase of 6.2% in the 12 months to September 2023. This is the highest annual percentage change since the London data series began in January 2006.

 

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reported in their October 2023 UK Residential Market Survey that tenant demand increased in the three months to October, while landlord instructions continued to fall, with most UK areas seeing a further reduction in such listings. With rising demand and dwindling supply, RICS noted that rental prices are expected to increase by around 4.0% on average across the UK over the next 12 months.

 

Supply and demand pressures can take time to be reflected in the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP). This is because the index reflects price changes for all private rental properties, rather than only newly advertised rental properties.

3. Annual UK private rental price percentage change by country

England

In England, private rental prices increased by 6.0% in the 12 months to October 2023, up from 5.6% in the 12 months to September 2023. When London is excluded from England, private rental prices increased by 5.6% in the 12 months to October 2023. The figures are the highest annual percentage changes since these data series began in January 2006. 

 

Wales

Private rental prices in Wales increased by 6.9% in the 12 months to October 2023. This was the highest of all the countries in Great Britain and unchanged from the price increase in the 12 months to September 2023.

 

Private sector measures of annual inflation for new tenancies tends to be higher than the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices’ (IPHRP’s) stock measure during periods of rising annual price inflation. For example, Homelet’s annual inflation for new tenancies in Wales recently rose to 11.0% in the 12 months to March 2023, whereas IPHRP’s stock measure reported a substantially lower annual inflation rate of 4.4% for the same period. The recent rise in the IPHRP’s annual inflation for Wales likely reflects the high annual inflation for new lets during the past year.

 

However, Homelet’s annual inflation for new tenancies in Wales has generally slowed since it’s peak in the 12 months to March 2023, with new let annual inflation slowing to 7.9% in the 12 months to October 2023. Meanwhile, IPHRP reports that annual inflation of the stock in Wales remained at its record high of 6.9% in the 12 months to October 2023, unchanged from the 12 months to September 2023. Since IPHRP measures rental price changes of the entire privately rented stock, changes in annual inflation of newly let rental prices take time to be reflected in IPHRP’s measure. Our Measuring the UK housing market blog post  provides more detail on the differences between stock and flow measures of rental prices.

 

Scotland

Private rental prices in Scotland increased by 6.2% in the 12 months to October 2023, up from 6.0% in the 12 months to September 2023, and is at the highest annual rate since the Scotland data series began in January 2012. The Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) Scotland Act has capped in-tenancy rental price increases in Scotland since late 2022 (see Section 7: Measuring the data).

 

The IPHRP’s stock measure remains substantially below Homelet’s annual inflation of 12.0% for new tenancies in Scotland in the 12 months to October 2023. The continued rise in the IPHRP’s annual inflation for Scotland since this Act was passed is likely to reflect the high annual inflation for new lets (which are not subject to the price cap) over the past year as it continues to feed into IPHRP’s stock measure.

 

Scotland rents data (underlying the IPHRP’s stock measure) is mainly for advertised new lets, which are not subject to the price cap. We advise users to bear this in mind when interpreting estimates for Scotland and comparing with other UK countries.

 

Northern Ireland

Private rental prices in Northern Ireland increased by 9.6% in the 12 months to August 2023. After slowing for three consecutive months, the annual rate for Northern Ireland has increased for the last two consecutive months and remains higher than for other UK countries. Northern Ireland data lag behind the rest of the UK and will be updated in our next Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, UK bulletin, to be published on 20 December 2023.

4. Annual UK private rental price percentage change by English region

London’s annual rents inflation was 6.8% in the 12 months to October 2023. This was the highest out of all the English regions. The lowest was in the North East, at 4.7% in the 12 months to October 2023.

Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/indexofprivatehousingrentalprices/october2023